How can Pakistan qualify for Semi-Finals now

Afghanistan defeated Pakistan by eight wickets in the competition’s fifth round of matches. After losing their first two matches, Pakistan suffered crushing losses to Australia and India. This was their third straight loss. Because of this, they have played five matches and have four points overall. They are currently ranked fifth in the table, outside of the four qualifying spots.

Pakistan’s predicament is made worse by the fact that only Afghanistan, out of the five teams ranked lower, is without a game. Above them, Australia and South Africa have also not yet completed or played their fifth game. Likewise, the growing disparity between the top four teams and the remainder does not bode well for Pakistan. India may already have enough points on ten, having won five of their previous five games, to qualify. If they were to win one more, net run rate would be the only factor preventing them from qualifying. In addition, Pakistan would need to triumph in three of their final four games to surpass New Zealand’s current point total. Pakistan would have to win every game and rely solely on net run rate to overtake New Zealand if they were to win just two of their final four games. Australia, South Africa, and Pakistan are the next opponents for the Black Caps, who have had an easier first half of the draw.

At this point, Pakistan can only score a maximum of 12. After five games, South Africa will have eight points if they defeat Bangladesh. Their outstanding net run rate means that two more victories would effectively put them ahead, and three wins from their remaining four would put them beyond reach. But they have a difficult final stretch ahead of them, with games against Afghanistan in their final group stage and Pakistan, New Zealand, and India up.

In all likelihood, Pakistan is currently leading Australia and the nations below for the fourth qualifying spot. Pakistan would need to win two more games than Australia in their final four games to pass them, assuming Australia wins their next match against the Netherlands. Given that Australia hasn’t yet faced Bangladesh or Afghanistan, Pakistan would likely need to win every game they play while losing to both England and New Zealand.

If Pakistan wins every game and Australia loses just one, the calculation would come down to the net run rate. Australia presently has a higher net run rate, though it is still attainable. The only way for Pakistan to pass them for fourth place is if they win every game by a wide margin.

Even without taking into account the other teams that are attempting the same thing as them, Pakistan already faces a difficult ask based on those scenarios. In terms of points, Afghanistan is identical to them in every way, even though their net run rate is lower. Technically, none of the four teams with two points are out of the running to qualify for the semifinals. To qualify, Pakistan will need to both outpace them and draw in those who are above them.

To put it briefly, Pakistan’s best chance of qualifying is likely to come from winning all of their games and counting on the defeat of those who are ranked higher. They still have South Africa and New Zealand to play, so they have an opportunity to steal points from some of their competitors. Likewise, their present difficulties make a stellar run of form seem improbable.
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